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Quantitative Methods
Finoplastika
Industries Ltd, Nigeria (20 Marks)
Time series analysis has two
important aims: 1) recognizing the quality of the phenomenon shown by the
series of studies, and 2) Both the aims need the plan of the viewed time series
data is recognized and somewhat officially explained: A time series is said to
be a 'collection of observations made in sequence with time'. For example:
recording level of daily rainfall, periodical total domestic product of US, and
monthly strength of the. workers in Marine Corps for a specific rank and MOS.
The evaluation of time series gives instruments for picking a symbolic model
and delivering forecasts. There are two sorts of times series data: •
Continuous: in this the data consists of study at every moment, for example,
seismic movement recorded on a seismogram. • Discrete: the data contains
recordings taken at different periods ,like, statistics of each month crime.
Until the data is absolutely haphazard, studies in time series are usually
related to each and the following studies could be partly ascertain by the last
values. For instance, the reasons pertaining to the meteorology which have an
effect on the temperature for any given day tend to have some affect on the
next day's climate. Hence, the observations of the past temperature are helpful
for predicting temperatures for the following days. • A time series can be
deterministic if there are no haphazard or feasible features but goes in a set
and foreseeable manner. The data gathered during the classical physics
experiment like showing Newton's Law of Motion, is one example of a
deterministic time series. The stochastic type of series is more appropriate to
the econometric function. Stochastic variables contain undefined or arbitrary
viewpoint. Though the worth of each study cannot be precisely foreseen,
calculating the various observations could follow the expected method. These
methods can be explained through the statistical models. According to these
models, studies differ erratically on the underlying mean value whtch is the role
of time. Time series data can be put in the following categories: one or more
performance factors; trend, seasonality, cyclical function and random sound.
Various kinds of time series predicting models give forecasts through
extrapolating the previous performance of the values of a specified \'l!riable
of interest. Consecutive study in econometric times series are generally not
free and forecast can be made on the basis of last observations. Although
precise predictions can be made with deterministic time series, predictions of
stochastic time series are restricted to 'conditional statements regarding the
future on the basis of particular hypothesis.' Armstrong (2001) says, "The
basic Assumption is that the variable ui!! continue in the future as it has
behaved in the past. " Particularly, the time series predictions are
suitable for stochastic type of data in which the fundamental root cause of
variation like, trend, cyclical performance, seasonality, and uneven
variations, do not change radically m time. Therefore, modeling is considered
to be more suitable temporarily instead of permanent predictions.
Answer
the following question.
Q1. Write briefly on time
series analysis. (Hint: recognizing the quality of the phenomenon shown by the
series of studies, and, both the aims need the plan of the viewed time series
data is recognized and somewhat officially explained)
CASE
STUDY (20 Marks)
The bulbs manufactured by a
company gave a mean life of 3000 hours with standard deviation of 400 hours. If
a bulb is selected at random, what is the probability it will have a mean life
less than 2000 hours?
Answer
the following question.
Q1. Calculate the probability.
Q2. In what situation does one
need probability theory?
Q3. Define the concept of
sample space, sample points and events in context of probability theory.
Q4. What is the difference
between objective and subjective probability?
Linear
Programming for Parking Slot Optimization (20 Marks)
For the development of any
country, transportations play a very vital and planned role, especially for
distributing the goods of the progress of all the citizens. Traffic jam is the
most common problem in transportation in urban are;s. One of the main causes of
traffic jam is making the road diameter smaller for creating street parking on
one side of the road. If seen expansively, traffic jam has a great affect. For
example, one of the affects is due to extensive usage of fuel which leads to
huge amount 'Of financial loss. Therefore, there is a great need for• reducing
te traffic jam, and one of them is the problem of on street parking. The
onstreet parking is the most serious problem and is the reason for problem of
smooth traffic flow. Yosritzal and Widanengsih did a survey on the demand for
parking based on the parking sites: They also recommended that the method of
deterioration could be used to ascertain the level of parking area around the
hospitals. • The parking according to the area, has been divided into r,vo
groups: street parking and off street parking. PCU (parking control unit) is
rhe space for parking vehicles, that depends on the dimension of that vehicle
and the• added space required for maneuvering the vehicle, depending upon the
angle of parking. •This survey was done at Jln.T.Panglima Polem Peunayong Banda
Aceh, and was started in the morning at 7 and went on till 6 in the evening. .
The technique of getting geometric data for parking space and the present
parking space capacity is taken by measuring the area and space allocation of
parking for each vehicle. The data collection for each vehicle which enters and
leaves the parking lot along with the parking duration is taken after • making
walking field survey along the parking lot and counting the vehicles and the
time duration of parking. According th.e field survey data, model evaluation is
done by involving the demand of user parking lot to average of accumulation of
parking and of the duration of parking. The average of accumulation of parking
is calculated after each 15 minutes for every vehicle. The solution to this
problem is to increase the space capacity at Jalan PanglimaPolem in relation to
the parking space availability, and meet the requirement of parking lor for
each vehicle. The average of accumulation of parking in every 15 minutes for
every vehicle is calculated from the average accumulation divided by the sum of
average accumulation for all the vehicles and multiplied by the capacity of the
parking space. The outcome of this study shows that the formulation of
maximizing the allocation of parking lot gives considerable ,atious results
when the formulation regards different \•iewpoints of the needs and demands of
parking. Maximizing problem occurs on fulfilling all the demands and needs of
parking without any possible area in the maximization ..The most significant
feature comes within the formulation before taking consideration the other
features to look for actual maximum outcome for the problem.
Answer
the following question.
Q1. What remedy was taken for
solving the problem of parking space at Jalan T. Panglima Polem? (Hint: to
increase the space, the average of accumulation of parking in every 15 minutes
for every vehicle is calculated from the average accumulation dhided by the sum
of average accumulation for all the vehicles and multiplied by the capacity of
the parking space.)
Q2. Traffic jam is the most
common problem in transportation in urban areas. True/False (Hint: True)
Case
(20 Marks)
Due to the changing
requirements for the products, the inventory management has become a vital
component, particularly for the safety of the stock. The four eements for
evaluating the (J.f?.Ck safety ••• are: forecast requirement, level of service,
start time and '!fie definite demand. The purpose of safety stock is to
safeguard against this probability, but the problem is more than the high safety
stock and the need can increase the operational costs. On the basis of these
difficulties, the prediction needs to be exact so that the company can
ascertain the amount needed to be bought, manufactured and shipped. For
estimating the forecast, the dual exponential smoothing model is f applied.
With. the use of exponential smoothing, calculation for both the average and
the trend can be smoothed. • Not just prediction, lead time also is the main
component for ,l ascertaining the safety stock and aspects which can bring down
the stock out case. "Lead time is the time elapsed in between the receipt
of customer order until the delivery of finished goods to the customer".
Some of the issues of lead time are: demand, order of .quantity, product
quality, reorder spot, safety stock, and other price issues such as discount,
permit shortage or not, price rise and the value of time of money, and should
be considered in deduction of lead time. On the basis of the stock out
occurrences, there is an issue which affects the case. Forecasting and reorder point
also affect the safety stock. When the safety stock reaches the right stage,
the stock level is brought down. Nevertheless, forecasting influences the
estimation of safety stock, as the level of safety stock is ascertained on the
basis of forecasting estimations. Not only this, the reorder point can
ascertain the level of safety stock.A stock out or pending orders is a state
which the company experiences for not meeting the requirements of the customer
within the required time period. Each month, PT.Combiphar acquired stock outs
in very high levels and values. Research was done on CTS3 or Omtusi, since they
have their quantity, rate and value is very high. Comtusi Syrup is a cough
syrup which is produced by PT.Combiphar, Padalarang, Indonesia. It is prepared
for hospital purposes and pharmacists, and comes in 60ml pack. The quantity of
total stok out in 2012 was 1,390,698 units, and the total value was Rp
35,229,335. The total stock out quantity of CTS3 is at the rate of 9%; the
quantity is equal to 128,036 units. The percentage of this product is 9.75%
from the total value, which is Rp 3,424,963,000. Due to the above case of stock
out, the capital and total profit came down. The above estimations show
considerable difference in the profits because of stock out case. The company
did not face any loss, but the profits came down. Because of stock out in 2012,
the loss of Rp 1, 888,383,500 was seen by the company. According to the above
evaluation, it is clear that the company had to face the dilapidated profits
because of stock out condition.
Answer
the following question.
Q1. Write a short note on
Forecasting, ReOrder Point and Safety Stock Level at PT. Combiphar, Indonesia.
(Hint: The four elements for evaluating the stock safety are: forecast
requirement, level of service, start time and the definite demand, The purpose
of safety stock is to safeguard against this probability, but the problem is
more than the high safety stock and the need can increase the operational
costs)
Q2. Which cough syrup does
PT.Combiphar make? (Hint: comtusi)
Assignment Solutions, Case study Answer sheets
Project Report and Thesis - Contact
ARAVIND – 09901366442 – 09902787224
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